OPENING: (FOX) flies to No. 1 for $43.9M to $44.3M, (REL) scares up $12.2M to $12.8M for third spot; Draft Day (LGF) second round pick for 10.9M. NOTEWORTHY: Captain America (DIS) expected to fall 56% to 57% in second weekend.
UPDATED, SATURDAY, 7:32 AM: The top 2 pictures were up in estimates from all distribs last night, with Rio 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier both adding a nice amount to its box office estimates, based last evening's grosses. Family audiences, which have been growing a bit weary of Muppets Most Wanted and Mr. Peabody and Sherman, were hungry for a new family film and Fox's animation studio flew in to please. So, Rio 2 is now expected in the $43.9M to $44.3M range and Captain America is looking at a $40.5M to 41.8M weekend for a lesser percentage drop of 56% or 57%, depending on the rest of the weekend. Audiences aren't warming to horror picture and forget positive word-of-mouth on this picture with a C CinemaScore. There has yet to be a well-received horror pic this year as the last ones to go wide were Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones on Jan. 3 and Devil's Due two weeks later and neither scored well with audiences. But, if the film makes what it is estimated to $12.2M to $12.8M, it does okay for Relativity. Meanwhile, (LGF)is lagging a bit, too, with estimates now taking it down to $10.9M for the 3-day weekend. I guess die-hard football fans are the only ones interested which doesn't bode well for its second weekend ... or for Summit ... or for Costner. Just a little off all the way around. Updated chart:
1). Rio 2 (FOX), 3,948 theaters / $11.9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $43.9M to $44.3M / Wk 1
2). Captain America: The Winter Soldier (DIS), 3,938 theaters (0) / $11.7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $40.5M to $41.8M (-56%) / Total cume: $158M to $159.5M / Wk 2
3). Oculus(REL), 2,648 theaters / $4.9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $12.2M to $12.8M / Wk 1
4). Draft Day (LGF), 2,781 theaters / $3.57M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.9M / Wk 1
5). Divergent (LGF), 3,110 theaters (-521) / $2.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7.4M / Total cume: $124.7M / Wk 4
6). Noah (PAR), 3,282 theaters (-289) / $2M Fri./ 3-day cume: $7M / Total cume: $84.5M / Wk 3
7). God's Not Dead (FREE), 1,860 theaters (+102) / $1.57M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.47M / Total cume: $40.8M / Wk 4
8). The Grand Budapest Hotel (FSL), 1,467 theaters (+204) / $1.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.M / Total cume: $39.3M / Wk 6
9). Muppets Most Wanted (DIS), 2,261 theaters (-791) / $565K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.28M / Total Cume: $45.8M / Wk 4
10). Mr. Peabody And Sherman (FOX), 2,001 theaters (-930) / $445K Fri. /3-day cume: $1.7M / Total cume: $105.1M / Wk 6
PREVIOUSLY, FRIDAY 10:50 PM: The animated family film Rio 2 from Fox's Blue Sky Studios has soared to the top spot this weekend, besting Disney/Marvel's Captain America: The Winter Soldier which is expected to drop roughly 59% in its sophomore frame. The budget for Rio 2 is said to be about $103M and internationally it has already taken in over $55M (as of last weekend).
It will have made roughly $100M worldwide after its debut this weekend here in the states. A huge force for the picture on social media, of course, is Bruno Mars who is on a world tour right now in Japan. "He's feeding the Rio 2 fans across his 51 million Facebook and 18 million Twitter followers," said RelishMix CEO Marc Karzen who also noted, "YouTube views are climbing and on par for animated (films), but fan reposted clips to owned studio trailers are soaring at a healthy 8 to 1 ratio." The first Rio opened in 2011 to $39M so the sequel is performing about 10% better. The sequel received an A CinemaScore.
Meanwhile, the 59% drop for Captain America is in line with the path that other Marvel films usually take. The first Captain America dipped 61% in its second weekend when it bowed during the summer of 2011. Thor: The Dark World dropped 57% in its second weekend. Captain America: The Winter Soldier, directed by Anthony and Joe Russo and starring Chris Evans as the Cap, will bring in a total cume around $157M+ domestically after this weekend. Internationally it has taken major territories by storm - notably in China where co-stars Scarlett Johansson and Samuel L. Jackson helped promote the superhero pic prior to its release. It took in $39.2M in that territory alone to push its overseas take to well over $207.1M as of last weekend - and it is certainly edging closer to $400M worldwide with Brazil and Japan opening next.
Related: Intl Box Office: 'Winter Soldier' Crosses $200M Overseas; 'Rio 2′ Breaks Brazil Records
The next tier down is Oculus, the horror film from Blumhouse Productions and WWE Studios as though it's the second round draft pick for females. The sports film was produced by Gigi Prtizker's Oddlot and Reitman and Tom Pollock's Montecito Picture Co. Would be nice to see Kevin Costner really hit one out of the park ... oh wait, wrong sports analogy. B+ CinemaScore.
NOTEWORTHY: God's Not Dead from Freestyle releasing, which only cost $2M to produce and another $2M to bring to market, is expected to end the weekend with $40.7M ... making over nine times its investment. The positions and numbers may change in the morning (like always, but here is what it looks like tonight):
For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...
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